The 2 remaining candidates competing for the Iranian presidency, Saeed Jalili and Masoud Pezeshkian, provide voters completely different visions for the nation’s future.
Nonetheless, specialists say their completely different opinions are unlikely to result in a big change in Iran’s overseas coverage.
Pezeskhian, a former well being minister and surgeon, got here first in Friday’s election however did not safe the 50 % wanted for an outright victory, forcing him right into a runoff in opposition to second-placed Jalili on July 5.
Friday’s snap election was to decide on a successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in late Could.
Pezeshkian stands out within the race as the one non-conservative candidate allowed to run.
He had the backing of reformists akin to former Overseas Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, whose participation probably alerts that Pezeshkian will pursue a key reformist overseas coverage aim: renegotiating a nuclear deal to ease sanctions on Iran’s financial system and ease tensions with the West.
The 2015 deal between Iran and China, the European Union, France, Germany, Russia, the UK and america to curb its nuclear program in change for sanctions aid was signed below centrist President Hassan Rouhani.
However three years later, then-US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal, crushing the hopes of those that believed it will have paved the way in which for Iran’s financial revival.
As an alternative, america imposed powerful new sanctions and Iranian hardliners discovered new floor to say the West couldn’t be trusted. Since then, talks on reviving the deal have largely stalled.
On the opposite facet of the political spectrum, Jalili is taken into account probably the most inflexible consultant of conservative politics.
A victory for the staunch hardliner – with the assist of different conservative candidates within the first spherical – would mark an much more confrontational method towards the West, particularly america, analysts say.
Having served as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator from 2007 to 2012, Jalili opposed the thought of Iran discussing or reaching agreements with different international locations over its uranium enrichment program, a stance he maintained for the 2015 deal.
You aren’t the one one who makes selections
Whatever the candidates’ markedly completely different stances, Iran’s president operates inside a restricted mandate.
Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) below his command have many of the say with regards to overseas coverage.
“If there’s a 180-degree change between a Trump and a [current US President Joe] “The Biden administration within the common trajectory of america in Iran, with a change of presidency, you get a distinction of 45 %; it’s not insignificant, nevertheless it doesn’t have as a lot impression as in different international locations,” mentioned Ali Vaez, head of the Worldwide Disaster Group’s Iran program.
“There are parts of continuity that restrict the diploma of change that may be seen.”
This has been cited as one of many causes behind the 40 % turnout in Friday’s election – the bottom in Iran’s historical past because the 1979 Islamic Revolution – as voters seem to have given up hope that a lot might enhance with a change of president.
A reformist president must cope with ultraconservative forces that dominate Iran’s parliament, whereas his potential to have interaction with the West could be examined by the nation’s regional engagement, which has put it at odds with its Western allies.
In April, Iran launched a missile and drone assault on Israel in retaliation for an Israeli assault on the Iranian consular constructing in Damascus, Syria, which killed senior IRGC commanders.
The unprecedented give-and-take got here amid rising regional tensions as Israel’s battle on Gaza drags on and the potential for an all-out battle between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon looms bigger.
However whereas regional insurance policies have lengthy been tightly managed by the IRGC, nuclear negotiations with world powers are nonetheless on the desk.
On this situation, the president can set the tone and perspective, if just for marginal modifications, mentioned Vali Nasr, a professor of Center East research at Johns Hopkins College.
“On the subject of the nuclear deal, the president will be crucial in exploring prospects for various kinds of outcomes,” Nasr mentioned. “Pezeshkian would defend the beginning of talks with america, whereas Jalili wouldn’t.”
Nuclear diplomacy is essential for Iranians because it immediately impacts the nation’s financial system, the primary concern of most Iranians. Successive governments have failed to handle forex depreciation and inflation, which they’ve blamed on the Western sanctions regime.
“To get sanctions lifted, it’s important to be thinking about speaking to the West; if in case you have an intransigent president, that makes a distinction,” Nasr mentioned.
The hardline method
A Jalili presidency could be consistent with the method of the late Raisi, who pledged throughout his three-year time period to not hyperlink the financial system to nuclear talks with overseas powers.
As an alternative, the federal government determined to depend on Iran’s home capabilities whereas shifting its enterprise eastward, strengthening ties with China, Russia and neighboring international locations.
Beneath the so-called “resistance financial system,” Iran final 12 months signed a China-brokered take care of Saudi Arabia that ended a years-long chilly battle between the regional rivals.
Raisi additionally pushed for Iran to hitch the Shanghai Cooperation Group and the nation turned a member of the BRICS bloc earlier this 12 months.
However the so-called flip east has failed to provide tangible outcomes when it comes to bettering the financial system – one thing the conservative camp has acknowledged – leaving any future president needing to strike a steadiness when it comes to route.
“Jalili won’t be able to utterly keep away from talks with the West as Pezeshkian won’t focus solely on nuclear talks,” mentioned Hamid Reza Gholamzadeh, director of DiploHouse, a suppose tank targeted on overseas coverage.
He added that Iran’s overseas coverage will even depend upon exterior elements – most significantly, the US elections in November.
“The problem shouldn’t be from inside Iran, however from exterior: if Trump or Biden wins,” he mentioned. “Even when Pezeskhian is president, he’ll face exterior challenges, not inner ones.”