Disagreement: Folks protest in opposition to a potential rapprochement between Syria and Turkey within the city of Azaz within the northern Syrian province of rebel-held Aleppo close to the Turkish border, Friday, July 12, 2024. | Photograph credit score: AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have not too long ago signaled that they’re interested by restoring diplomatic relations which have been severed for greater than a decade.
Erdogan has mentioned he hopes to quickly organize a gathering with Assad for the primary time for the reason that nations severed ties in 2011, when mass anti-government protests and a brutal crackdown by safety forces in Syria led to a civil struggle that’s nonetheless ongoing.
At a NATO summit in Washington on Thursday, Erdogan mentioned he had requested Assad two weeks in the past to return to Turkey for the assembly or maintain it in a 3rd nation, and had assigned Turkey’s international minister to watch the state of affairs.
Turkey had backed Syrian rebel teams looking for to oust Assad and nonetheless maintains forces within the opposition-held northwest, a sore spot for Damascus.
This isn’t the primary time that there have been makes an attempt to normalise relations between the 2 nations, however earlier makes an attempt have been unsuccessful.
Russia, which is a significant supporter of the Assad authorities but additionally has shut ties to Turkey, has been pushing for a restoration of diplomatic relations.
Earlier efforts
In December 2022, protection ministers of Turkey, Syria and Russia held talks in Moscow, the primary ministerial-level assembly between rivals Turkey and Syria since 2011.
Russia additionally brokered conferences between Syrian and Turkish officers final yr.
Nonetheless, the talks failed and Syrian officers continued to publicly criticise Turkey’s presence in north-west Syria. Assad mentioned in an interview with Sky Information Arabia final August that the goal of Erdogan’s proposals was to “legitimise the Turkish occupation in Syria”.
Russia seems to be as soon as once more pushing for talks, however this time Iraq, which shares borders with Turkey and Syria, has additionally supplied to mediate, because it did beforehand between regional arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Aron Lund, a senior fellow on the Century Worldwide suppose tank, mentioned Iraq might have taken the initiative as a approach to deflect stress from Turkey to crack down on the Kurdistan Employees’ Social gathering, or PKK, a Kurdish separatist group that has waged an insurgency in opposition to Turkey for the reason that Nineteen Eighties and has bases in northern Iraq.
By pushing for a rapprochement with Syria, Baghdad could also be attempting to “create some type of constructive engagement with the Turks and deflect the specter of intervention,” Lund mentioned.
The geopolitical state of affairs within the area has additionally modified with Israel’s struggle in Gaza and fears of a wider regional battle. Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, a Turkey analyst and director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, mentioned each nations might really feel insecure and be looking for new alliances in mild of the potential results of the struggle within the area.
On Erdogan’s half, Unluhisarcikli mentioned, the try to succeed in a deal is probably going partly on account of rising anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey. Erdogan is probably going hoping to succeed in a deal that would pave the way in which for the return of most of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees residing in his nation.
From the Syrian facet, restoring relations with Turkey could be one other step in direction of ending Assad’s political isolation within the area.
And regardless of their variations over Turkey’s presence in northwestern Syria, each Damascus and Ankara have an curiosity in limiting the autonomy of Kurdish teams in northeastern Syria.
Turkey could also be involved that the safety state of affairs in northeast Syria might deteriorate if the USA withdraws troops it at present has stationed there as a part of a coalition in opposition to the Islamic State militant group, Unluhisarcikli mentioned.
Joseph Daher, a Swiss-Syrian researcher and visiting professor on the European College Institute in Florence, mentioned the 2 governments doubtless hope to make modest “financial positive factors” from a rapprochement. Whereas commerce has by no means stopped fully, it’s at present carried out by intermediaries, he mentioned, whereas restoring diplomatic relations would enable official commerce to renew and turn into extra fluid.
‘Unhealthy blood’
Whereas the 2 nations’ pursuits “really largely coincide,” Lund mentioned, “there are additionally main disagreements” and “a variety of dangerous blood and bitterness” that would stop even “reaching low-level agreements.” Each Erdogan and Assad may also need to watch for the result of the U.S. election earlier than reaching a significant deal, he mentioned.
In the long run, Lund mentioned, “the logic of the state of affairs dictates a Turkish-Syrian collaboration of some type… They’re caught in one another’s methods and the present stalemate shouldn’t be of their finest curiosity.”
Unluhisarcikli agreed {that a} “grand deal” was unlikely to emerge from the present talks, however mentioned intensified dialogue might result in “some confidence-building measures.”
In Turkey and government-controlled Syria, many welcome the prospect of a rapprochement. In north-west Syria, nonetheless, protests have erupted in opposition to the prospect of a normalisation of relations between Ankara – which till now had positioned itself because the protector of the Syrian opposition – and Damascus.
Syria’s Kurds have additionally been apprehensive concerning the potential rapprochement. The Kurdish authority in northeastern Syria mentioned in an announcement that any potential reconciliation could be a “conspiracy in opposition to the Syrian individuals” and a “clear legitimization of the Turkish occupation” of previously Kurdish-majority areas that have been taken over by Turkish-backed forces.
