Even earlier than the polls closed for the US presidential election on Tuesday evening, Israel’s Minister of Nationwide Safety, the far-right Itamar Ben-Gvir, had taken to Twitter to publish “Yesssss” in English, whereas including emojis of a flexed bicep and pictures of the Israeli and American presidential elections. flags.
Yessss 💪🏻🇮🇱🇺🇸 https://t.co/kPqkYI3PDP
— איתמר בן גביר (@itamarbengvir) November 6, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was solely barely slower to congratulate Trump on his victory within the US presidential election, turning into the primary world chief to take action and framing Trump’s victory as a “ highly effective new dedication to the nice alliance between Israel and the US.”
Pricey Donald and Melania Trump,
Congratulations on the most important comeback in historical past!
His historic return to the White Home gives a brand new starting for America and a strong dedication to the nice alliance between Israel and the US.
It is a massive win!
In true friendship,… pic.twitter.com/B54NSo2BMA
— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) November 6, 2024
Two days earlier than this week’s election, through which former US President Donald Trump staged one of many wildest political comebacks in latest historical past, main the Republican Occasion to a landslide victory, Israeli media polls confirmed that Trump had already He had gained the hearts and minds of many in Israel.
When requested who they wish to see within the White Home, practically 65 p.c of respondents mentioned they most popular Trump to his rival, Kamala Harris. Amongst those that recognized as Jewish, the distinction was even starker: 72 p.c of respondents instructed the Israel Democracy Institute that they felt Israel’s pursuits can be higher served by a Trump presidency.
It is a new lurch in direction of the Republicans. An identical ballot performed by the identical physique in 2020 confirmed that 63 p.c of Israelis favored Trump over the eventual winner, Joe Biden.
For Vice President Kamala Harris, who polls present took a beating for her administration’s unwavering, if sometimes essential, assist for Israel’s battle on Gaza and its refusal to cease army support, Trump’s victory celebrations in Israel are in all probability one other twist of their defeat.
A ‘decisive second’
“Persons are celebrating now,” pollster and former political aide to, amongst others, Netanyahu, Mitchell Barak, instructed Al Jazeera from Jerusalem. “I imply, as you’ve got seen the polls, individuals see this as a victory for Israel and for Netanyahu. He [Netanyahu] He wager on this, contemplating he solely needed to wait till November and a Trump victory, and that wager turned out to be appropriate.
“Inside Israel, individuals see this as a turning level,” he mentioned.
Within the run-up to the 2020 election, Trump had instructed American voters, in a bid to win the Jewish vote, that “the Jewish State has by no means had a greater pal within the White Home than its president, Donald J. Trump.” ”.
On this, in contrast to lots of the former US president’s statements, he appeared to be factually appropriate.
In his first time period as president, Trump defied worldwide norms and acknowledged the occupied Golan Heights (Syrian territory, two-thirds of which is occupied by Israel) as Israeli territory, accepted Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, subsequently moved the US embassy and put in his pro-settler ambassador there.
To consolidate Israel’s place throughout the area, the American president additionally launched into what he known as the Abraham Accords, which led to the normalization of relations between Israel and 4 Arab states; Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Sudan, in change for American concessions and, in lots of circumstances, entry to Israel’s cutting-edge intelligence and weapons expertise.
Extra lately, Trump emphasised his want to revive the nice and cozy relationship he loved with Netanyahu throughout his first presidency in July of this yr when he welcomed the Israeli prime minister to his Florida property, Mar-a-Lago.
In contrast, the Biden administration’s relations with Netanyahu, whereas sturdy, have cooled over the course of 13 months of battle in Gaza.
First, there have been the US’ repeated “considerations” in regards to the Israeli marketing campaign in Gaza that has to this point killed 43,391 individuals – largely ladies and kids – with many hundreds extra misplaced and presumed useless beneath the rubble. Then there have been Biden’s pink traces on the following Israeli invasion of Rafah. And at last, the US authorities’s latest requests that support be allowed into northern Gaza, which support businesses say is getting ready to famine. All of this seems to have clashed with the Israeli prime minister who, in March of this yr, went as far as to say that US President Biden – whose unwavering army and diplomatic assist has underpinned Israel’s battle in opposition to Gaza – was “fallacious” in his criticism. to Israel.
Given the strain Netanyahu faces each at residence (from individuals who need a ceasefire deal in Gaza to make sure some likelihood of recovering the Israeli captives left there) and overseas, the place many nations are dismayed by the degrees of violence noticed in Gaza. Netanyahu wants an American ally who shouldn’t be essential, analysts have mentioned.
Finish of the two-state resolution?
Along with being extra possible to present Netanyahu free rein over his actions in Gaza and the West Financial institution (as Palestinians concern after the election), Trump can also be the catalyst for ending any notion of two states. resolution.
“Folks typically accuse the Israeli proper of by no means trying too far forward,” impartial Israeli analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg mentioned of Netanyahu and his cupboard. “And plenty of instances they’re proper. Nevertheless, beneath Trump, they’ve acknowledged that his election possible marks the tip of the two-state resolution and Gaza as we all know it.”
In the US, regardless of its unwavering assist for Israel’s battle in Gaza, the two-state resolution – no less than formally – stays a central tenet of the outgoing Biden administration’s overseas coverage within the Center East, because it has been on earlier events because the signing of the Oslo Accords within the Nineties.
In mid-Could, Biden doubled down on long-standing U.S. coverage, saying at a commencement ceremony in Georgia: “I am working to ensure we lastly get a two-state resolution.”
Nevertheless, just some weeks earlier, Trump appeared to take the other stance, telling Time journal: “Most individuals thought it was going to be a two-state resolution. “I’m undecided a two-state resolution goes to work.”
Trump’s sentiment echoed the Center East peace plan, which he known as “the deal of the century” and unveiled towards the tip of his first administration in 2020. To some observers, it appeared like an Israeli want listing.
In it, amongst different measures, Trump affirmed his intention to acknowledge most of Israel’s unlawful settlements within the occupied West Financial institution, acknowledge a unified Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, deny the best of return to Palestine refugees and, if after Palestine was granted statehood, make sure that it stays demilitarized.
With a newly returned Trump now answerable for each homes of Congress and the Supreme Courtroom, there isn’t a legislative or judicial block stopping the incoming Trump administration from delivering on what the outgoing Trump administration had promised.
“Trump simply does not care. He’s not ,” Flaschenberg mentioned of Gaza and Lebanon, the place Israel has launched devastating assaults in opposition to the political group Hezbollah, to this point killing 3,002 Lebanese civilians within the course of in latest weeks. “The one factor new is that folks say they’re shocked. They should not be. “We’ve been right here earlier than,” he mentioned.
‘Bloodbath as at all times’
“Netanyahu and Trump share the identical genocidal agenda,” impartial political scientist Ori Goldberg instructed Al Jazeera from Israel, from the place Al Jazeera is prohibited from reporting.
“They’re each in opposition to what they see as ‘progressive awakening’ or id politics. What’s extra, every assumes that the opposite is an fool who will be simply manipulated.”
Nevertheless, Goldberg cautioned that no less than a kind of leaders’ evaluation of the opposite could also be fallacious. “I feel Netanyahu could also be a bit of short-sighted in the best way he views Trump.
“Trump takes a number of delight in his anti-war stance,” Goldberg mentioned, suggesting that no matter guarantees Trump made in 2020, sensible assist would possible be restricted to weapons and {dollars}.
“It is actually unlikely that he would approve American troops on the bottom, however let’s face it, who accused Israel or Israeli politicians of enjoying the lengthy sport?” mentioned. “For Netanyahu particularly, it is about making it to the tip of that day.”
In the meantime, with the weapons, support and diplomatic assist already supplied by the Biden administration troublesome to enhance upon, Goldberg predicted few tangible adjustments within the close to time period.
“Netanyahu will proceed to do no matter he needs, as he at all times has,” Goldberg mentioned, “will probably be slaughter as traditional.”
