EXPLAINER
Because the US election approaches, we discover the Electoral School routes for Trump and Harris to safe the presidency.
In the US Electoral School, a candidate wants at the least 270 of 538 electoral votes to win the election.
Every state is assigned a sure variety of electoral votes primarily based on its inhabitants. Some states persistently favor one social gathering, whereas “battlegrounds” or “swing states” can change, making them essential in deciding elections.
This election contains seven contested states, with a complete of 93 electoral votes: Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada ( 6).
How can Kamala Harris win?
Harris is projected to win at the least 226 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia, with important contributions from California (54), New York (28), and Illinois (19).
To achieve 270 electoral votes, Harris will want at the least 44 of the 93 battleground votes.
The best path for her could be to win Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (16), securing 51 electoral votes and a Harris presidency. In the mean time, although, he trails Trump in all three, in response to FiveThirtyEight’s polling common: Pennsylvania solely by a really marginal margin, and Georgia and North Carolina by barely bigger margins.
Mathematically, Democrats have 11 attainable methods Harris may win 270 Electoral School votes by successful simply three of the seven contested states, and one other 9 methods by successful 4 states. Successful 5 or extra battleground states would safe the presidency for both candidate.
Right here is the mix of three or 4 swing states Harris would wish to win to succeed in 270:
How can Donald Trump win?
Republicans are projected to win at the least 219 electoral votes from 24 states throughout the nation, with main contributions from Texas (40), Florida (30) and Ohio (17).
To achieve 270 electoral votes, Trump will want at the least 51 of the 93 battleground votes.
Like Democrats, the best path for him is to win Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (16), securing 51 electoral votes and bringing Republicans to precisely 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. He at present leads in all three states, in response to ballot trackers.
If Republicans don’t win these three states, then they need to win at the least 4 of the seven contested states to safe the presidency. Mathematically, Republicans have 20 successful mixtures from 4 states.
What occurs if Harris and Trump find yourself tied?
There are three situations during which Harris and Trump may each attain 269 electoral votes.
This might occur if there are not any surprises, with Harris and Trump securing their 226 and 219 electoral votes respectively, and the next leads to the battleground states:
State of affairs 1:
- Democrats win:
Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6) - Republicans win:
Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16) and Michigan (15)
State of affairs 2:
- Democrats win:
Georgia (16) North Carolina (16) and Arizona (11) - Republicans win:
Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6)
State of affairs 3:
- Democrats win:
North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6) - Republicans win:
Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16) and Michigan (15)
If both of those outcomes happens, a contingent election is held during which the U.S. Home of Representatives decides the winner.
Every state’s Home delegation would solid one vote, and a candidate should obtain a majority (26 of fifty) of the state delegation’s votes to win.
The US Senate would then elect the vp and every senator would solid one vote and a easy majority (51 votes) could be wanted to win.
The graphic beneath highlights the successful mixtures for every candidate.
