By each quantifiable measure, Bangladesh’s now-deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was probably the most entrenched, dominant and brutal dictator the nation had identified since independence. She imprisoned, exiled and eradicated most of her political friends like no different ruler in South Asian historical past. She introduced all of the powers of the Bangladeshi state below her command so successfully that in some unspecified time in the future it turned the state.
However a leaderless college scholar motion defied her with marches at pre-announced dates and areas. Inside weeks, these younger revolutionaries had drawn the nation into the streets to the purpose that Hasina needed to take a helicopter to flee. They achieved one thing that the previous prime minister’s established political rivals had tried for greater than a decade however constantly didn’t do.
Whereas the younger revolutionaries and their supporters have a lot to have a good time, the street forward for the nation won’t be with out challenges.
A recipe for a profitable scholar motion
The start of the tip for Hasina got here when a gaggle of younger individuals started demanding the scrapping of an unfair quota system within the distribution of civil service jobs, which primarily gave preferential therapy to the relations of her political cronies.
To arrange their protests, the scholars created a shared management construction, with leaders taking part in the function of coordinators. They known as their coalition the College students In opposition to Discrimination Motion. The coordinators got here from private and non-private academic establishments.
What might have been calmed by easy guarantees of future reforms was exacerbated by the prime minister’s crude feedback and brutal repression by her safety forces. However the protest organisers have been battle-hardened and knew precisely what to anticipate.
Simply six years in the past, lots of them had participated as youngsters in one other wave of mass protests centered on the nation’s lawless transport sector. These protests erupted after a industrial bus ran over two college students. The automobile that triggered these deaths was owned by an organization linked to a relative of a minister.
Identical to in 2024, in 2018 the youth have been mercilessly crushed by Hasina’s civilian militia, i.e. the scholar wing of the Awami League celebration. The usage of violence succeeded in suppressing the protests, however not earlier than this era of revolutionaries had gained ample expertise in organizing profitable protests, creating various command constructions, utilizing improvised communication strategies below web shutdowns and evading authorities surveillance, and so on.
All these expertise helped them of their profitable try to overthrow probably the most ruthless dictator within the historical past of Bangladesh.
Is that this the tip for Sheikh Hasina?
Hasina had already needed to depart Bangladesh earlier than. Whereas dwelling in Europe, a bloody coup towards her father, President Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, occurred in 1975, killing nearly her whole household. She prolonged her keep overseas and didn’t return to the nation till the early Eighties. She shortly rose to prominence on the political scene and managed to create a cult following amongst members of her father’s Awami League.
Following one other navy coup in 2006, each Hasina and her foremost political rival, Khaleda Zia, have been on the verge of dropping their proper to take part in Bangladeshi politics. Zia refused to enter exile and remained in Bangladesh below home arrest. Hasina opted for the protected exit and hung out in Europe and the USA earlier than returning to Bangladesh. She contested the 2008 elections and gained by a landslide.
However she is unlikely to return to energy triumphantly in 2008. Given the large bloodshed and indiscriminate killings that occurred throughout her tenure, it is going to be extraordinarily tough for Hasina, 76, to regain her political fortunes this time round.
It seems that Basic Waker Uz Zaman, the navy chief who finally requested Hasina to depart the nation, is a relative of hers by marriage. Nonetheless, the prospect of a profitable counter-coup to facilitate her return to Bangladesh is unlikely at this level, given widespread resentment in direction of her authorities.
The truth that no different political determine of her stature has needed to flee the nation within the face of widespread anger has completely broken Hasina’s popularity as an invincible chief. In spite of everything, she was pursued by lots of of hundreds of youths armed with sticks and bricks, whereas her males had all of the weapons and fired indiscriminately. This ignominious exit will make her future return politically untenable.
What lies forward for Bangladesh?
On August 8, three days after Hasina fled, a caretaker authorities was sworn in, headed by one among Hasina’s nemeses, Dr Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s solely Nobel laureate. Dr Yunus, one of many few distinguished political figures who enjoys nationwide respect, would be the chief adviser, a title equal to prime minister.
The 16-person advisory group (the equal of cupboard ministers) he chosen consists of civil society figures, a number of of whom have obtained worldwide acclaim. Among the many advisors are two distinguished coordinators from the ranks of the scholar motion. Dr. Yunus and his chosen advisors have up to now obtained constructive reception from the media and the general public, however they’ve a tough process forward of them.
At this second, scholar organizers are demanding that Bangladeshi politics be free of politicians related to corruption and mismanagement, not solely throughout Hasina’s authorities but additionally within the governments that preceded her.
The issue is that Hasina’s political DNA is in each nook of the Bangladeshi state she left behind. The judges, bureaucrats, police and navy commanders she handpicked proceed to run the present. Making the brand new authorities acceptable to the individuals would require a sophisticated technique of administrative reshuffles, dismissals and outright arrests of Hasina’s workers – a course of that has already begun.
In his first televised tackle, Basic Zaman promised to carry justice to the victims of indiscriminate killings by the state equipment throughout Hasina’s reign. Newly appointed advisers to the interim authorities echoed this intention. Nonetheless, such a technique of accountability will undoubtedly be prolonged and it’s unclear whether or not it may be accomplished below his watch. Reforming the police, civilian paperwork and navy management to revive public confidence in any future electoral course of will even take time.
Dr Yunus additionally has to handle a number of challenges in relations with Bangladesh’s two huge neighbours: India and China.
India, the nation that was Hasina’s most vocal supporter on the world stage, is shocked and saddened by her departure. It’s involved concerning the potential breakdown of legislation and order and the focused repression of Bangladesh’s massive Hindu inhabitants.
Gobinda Chandra Pramanik, one among Bangladesh’s most distinguished Hindu group leaders, has sought to calm India’s fears, saying that Hindus are dealing with as a lot lawlessness as the remainder of the nation for the time being and that issues are step by step calming down as volunteers from main political events are turning as much as shield the Hindu group.
The cupboard of advisers and the principle political events on the whole could should take care of Indian strain to maintain individuals who posed critical threats to the nation’s nationwide safety from returning to energy. That negotiation can be difficult.
Hasina’s geopolitical chessboard was to counter US human rights considerations by addressing India’s safety fears and fascinating with China’s enterprise pursuits. Now, the long run authorities could also be busy assuaging India’s safety considerations by responding to American considerations about China. Orchestrating this geopolitical dance will profit from the broad worldwide buy-in that Dr Yunus brings, however execution and enforcement could stay tough.
The interim authorities’s foremost process stays to organise a brand new common election. Calls for for a courtroom to attempt the hundreds of illegal killings and critical human rights violations, each regionally and internationally, could complicate the Awami League’s participation in future nationwide elections. The celebration itself may additionally base its future electoral participation on circumstances that favour the return of the Hasina clan, and even Hasina herself.
All different events will even should navigate authorized hurdles, given the intense prison expenses introduced towards her political opponents below Hasina to forestall them from operating in elections. Amongst them is Tarique Rahman, the de facto chief of the Bangladesh Nationalist Social gathering, who’s serving a life sentence for his alleged function in a plot to assassinate Hasina in 2004. Bangladesh’s largest Islamist political celebration, Jamaat-e-Islami, was banned on August 3 and has been barred from operating in elections since 2013.
Given the immense obstacles, Bangladesh’s present interim authorities is prone to final a number of months, or perhaps a yr. When sworn in, the advisers gave no indication of the size of their mandate.
Many Bangladeshis see Hasina’s ouster as their second independence, the primary being after they break up from Pakistan 53 years in the past.
In every single place there may be exuberance and hope for a greater future, however optimism should be cautious. Whether or not this newest revolution will ship a fairer, freer, much less brutal and democratic Bangladesh will depend upon the viability of the calls for put ahead by the revolutionaries and the talent of the brand new authorities not solely in managing them but additionally in dealing with pressures from exterior forces.
The views expressed on this article are these of the writer and don’t essentially replicate the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
