Because the US presidential election approaches, the race to draw voters has intensified. Among the many numerous constituencies that Democrats and Republicans are competing for, one stands out: the Muslim group.
Though Muslims make up about 1 p.c of the U.S. inhabitants, they’re an vital voting bloc as a result of they’re concentrated in key states, usually successful elections by slender margins.
On this election cycle, the Muslim group seems extra united than ever round a single political problem: the struggle in Gaza. Any candidate who hopes to win the help of broad segments of Muslim voters must heed the group’s calls for for an finish to the bloodshed in Palestine.
That is in response to a brand new examine revealed by the Institute for Social Coverage and Understanding (ISPU) in collaboration with Emgage and Change Analysis. It’s based mostly on a survey carried out in late June and early July specializing in how Muslims in three key states – Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan – plan to vote within the 2024 presidential election.
What we discovered is that President Joe Biden’s dealing with of the struggle in Gaza has turned Muslims, who in 2020 have been a few of his largest supporters, into his staunchest detractors.
In 2020, roughly 65 p.c of Muslim voters in these states turned out to vote for Biden. This help was important to his election victory as a result of he gained key states by small margins. He gained Georgia by simply 12,000 votes, a state the place greater than 61,000 Muslims voted, and Pennsylvania by 81,000 votes, a state the place 125,000 Muslims voted.
Against this, in our ballot, carried out earlier than Biden dropped out of the presidential race, solely 12 p.c of respondents mentioned they might vote for him, marking a dramatic drop in help not seen in every other group studied. Whereas this impacts the presidential race, it has additionally manifested itself in broader disillusionment with the Democratic Occasion institution.
The struggle in Gaza has unified Muslim voters like no different problem has in latest historical past. In keeping with the 2020 American Muslim Ballot carried out by ISPU, well being care (19 p.c), the financial system (14 p.c), and social justice (13 p.c) have been crucial voting points for Muslim voters.
Evaluate that to 2024: Throughout the partisan spectrum, the highest precedence of Muslim voters in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan is the struggle in Gaza (61 p.c), adopted by protecting america out of international wars (22 p.c).
Decreasing army assist to Israel additionally garnered help from the overwhelming majority of Muslim voters in our examine, who, no matter their partisan sentiments, overwhelmingly view this coverage as a purpose to vote for a candidate. Whereas a struggle overseas could appear far faraway from the each day issues of American Muslim voters, many view the US function – offering unconditional assist and diplomatic cowl to Israel – as complicity within the continued oppression of Palestinians.
The importance of the Gaza struggle for Muslim voters turned clear months earlier than we carried out our survey. The Muslim group performed a outstanding function within the Nationwide Uncommitted Motion, which urged Democratic voters to vote “uncommitted” of their states’ presidential primaries. The initiative noticed greater than 700,000 Democrats achieve this, making clear their demand for a change within the Biden administration’s tone and coverage on Israel and Palestine.
This dramatic Muslim migration away from Biden isn’t a widespread leap to the opposite aspect, nevertheless. Muslim help for Trump rose from 18 p.c in 2020 to 22 p.c in 2024 in Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Biden’s former Muslim supporters are overwhelmingly switching to 3rd events or haven’t but determined. Our examine discovered that just about a 3rd of Muslim voters will both vote for a third-party candidate (27 p.c) or embrace one on the ticket (3 p.c). About 17 p.c of Muslims mentioned they haven’t but selected a candidate, in contrast with 6 p.c of most of the people.
Which means that there’s nonetheless room and time for the candidates to win over this important citizens. And plainly they’re attempting.
Not solely has Biden dropped out of the race, however Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has signaled she is distancing herself from her unwavering help for Israel’s struggle on Gaza. In July, the vice chairman skipped Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s tackle to Congress, mentioned she wouldn’t stay silent within the face of struggling in Gaza and made clear her help for a ceasefire.
In August, he selected as his working mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, broadly seen as extra sympathetic to the Palestinian trigger than Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who was on the shortlist. This yr, Walz praised Minnesota’s disengaged voters, calling them “civically engaged,” and mentioned, “This problem is a humanitarian disaster. They’ve each proper to be heard.”
And whereas Muslims have been cautiously optimistic at finest, the Harris marketing campaign’s refusal to permit a Palestinian American to talk on the Democratic Nationwide Conference final week has soured that hope.
Third-party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West have been vocal of their help for the individuals of Gaza. West selected Melina Abdullah, a black Muslim lady, as his working mate. Stein selected Muslim activist and scholar Rudolph “Butch” Ware.
Even Republican candidate Donald Trump’s marketing campaign is attempting to succeed in out to Arab American voters, a shock given the anti-Muslim rhetoric he used throughout the marketing campaign in 2016. Folks related along with his marketing campaign have been attempting to court docket Arab voters in key states. Trump’s youngest daughter, Tiffany, married the son of a Lebanese American businessman, Massad Boulous, who has been attempting to influence Arabs in Michigan to vote for the previous president due to the present administration’s failed coverage on Gaza.
The Muslim group’s mobilization in help of Palestine has come at a excessive value for a lot of. The Council on American Islamic Relations reported an unprecedented rise in incidents of discrimination—a 56% enhance in stories of Islamophobia in 2023. Anti-Palestinian racism has additionally skyrocketed, a worrying development mirrored within the capturing of three Palestinian college students in Vermont carrying the keffiyeh scarf. Hundreds of individuals, lots of them Muslim college students, have been arrested at protests on faculty campuses, and lots of have been threatened with expulsion or confronted prison prices for his or her pro-Palestinian activism at faculties and universities throughout america.
And but, even regardless of the implications of taking a public stance on Palestine, Muslim voters appear unfazed this time. Solidarity with the individuals of Gaza has emerged as crucial problem for American Muslim voters, a gaggle no candidate can afford to disregard.
The views expressed on this article are these of the authors and don’t essentially replicate the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
